Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Prediction Time!

"Clubber, what's your prediction for the outcome of the fight?"

PAIN

Alright so here's the deal: this weekend is pretty much the most unprecedented weekend of absurdly long racing our team has ever seen, so let's have some fun with it. I don't want people making predictions for anyone else because I don't want those racing to let it affect them, so we'll just mess with me.

I will allow each person to make their prediction for my swim time at Arizona. Predictions must be submitted by 11:59pm ET on Saturday, November 21, via the comments section. If you don't have comment privileges for whatever reason and you're reading this and would like to play, just email me at rmcgrath@tmo.blackberry.net. I will now provide you the information you'll need to make an educated guess. The winner will receive a prize, and it's going to be closest to the pin, NOT Price is Right rules (closest without going over). So if you guess over but you're 2 seconds away and that's the closest, you win.

1) My Eagleman 2009 swim time was 30:27 for 1.2 miles (Arizona is 2.4 miles). This was a PR.

2) In the 3 months leading up to Eagleman, I swam 30,200m; 12,500m; 22,250m. In the past 3 months leading up to AZ I'll have swam 24,500m; 35,800m; 40,200m (projected).

3) At Eagleman I swam a fairly easy effort, as I was riding and running still after and I like to swim easy. At Arizona I will only be swimming, so I have nothing to worry about doing after.

4) It is a mass start, so 2000 bodies going from vertical to horizontal all at once, gnashing and thrashing in Tempe Town Lake.

34 comments:

alyssa said...

59:59:59

Ben said...

you are all welcome to predict my time in the JFK 50 miler too. I've never run more than a marathon - so, there aren't really any hints to give you. I would be happy with a sub 6:30 - but it could go a lot of different ways.

gladfelter said...

Ryan, you think too much. I quess 59min 47sec

alyssa said...

dude barf way to cock block my guess.

Ben said...

i'm going with 59min 46sec and kendra is going with 59min 48sec

alyssa said...

hahahaha YES.

RM said...

Ben, last year was super super cold and the times were pretty quick. I *think* it will be warmer this year, and will probably be perfect for you.

I believe you will finish in the top 5 and in order to do that you will need to run under 6:30.

My guess therefore is 6:15:47

RM said...

And Barf - how do I think too much?! I just had to make sure you all had the proper information to make an educated guess.

Under an hour would be nice, but don't be afraid to put some times up there in the 1:00:00-1:03:00 range!

Johnnie Cochran said...

Prediction for RM's "Swim for Seamen*" = 1:01:01

Prediction for Ben's "Chili Bowl in my Pants" 50 Mi = 6:40 (it will be hot on race day)

* in memory of the men who lost their lives on the USS Arizona at Pearl Harbor.

alyssa said...

6:40! not unless you get stuck by the train.

I'm gonna go with 6:22:13.

Andrew Jaffe said...

59:00

Ben said...

one of the benefits of marriage is the double team cock block - it's much more effective.

cheese said...

alyssa, you mean 59 minutes or hours?
i'll back barf and go 59:45, see how long this can go

alyssa said...

Cheese - I hate you. 59 minutes, 59 seconds, and 59 smallerthanseconds.

De said...

Based on my mathematical formulas, here are my predictions:
Ryan
(30:27 x 2)- 28 sec = 1:00.26

Ben
(2:47:33 x 2) + 32 min = 6:07:06

Gooooooooooooooooooooooo Ryan!
Gooooooooooooooooooooooo Ben!

RM said...

smallerthanseconds...haha

Denise makes a rare appearance on the blog!

I would love to see Ben run 6:07. I think he can do it. I bet Ben could run 5:40...

fbg said...

Ryan 1:03:01:81
Ben 6:27:81

Dirty Chewbacca said...

I feel like I should have the inside track on your time Ryan after all the lessons and training sessions. I am going with 59:14.

For some strange reason Alli has a lot of faith in you and said 57 minutes. This was after she guessed 52, I quickly talked her off that guess. You would think that someone who has raced dozens of tris would have a clue.

I think the ass man can drop 6:19, but only if he is wearing his straw hat.

Claire said...

I don't know much about swimming but my guess is 59:05 for Ryan

And for Ben I'll guess 6:25.

It's prob a bit late to join in on the guessing games but if anyone wants to throw in guesses for me feel free. It's my first 50 so could go many ways it would be nice to go under 9 hours.

RM said...

Clairebear: 8h47m25s

///MM said...

58:40. Do work!
If you beat me out of the water I may punch you in the knee. No I wouldn't. Actually, since you're technically another participant, I'd be allowed to accept aid if you offered me a gu or some air at some point, right?

RM said...

You know what's funny Z? That's what I've been telling everyone this week, that I need to beat you out and that way I can be all in your face as you're in transition! I'm also hoping that it will allow me access to transition and other parts of the race later in the day.

JAR said...

Ryan 1:00:54
Ben 6:25:06
Clair 8:55:30

Christy said...

Ryan: 57:30
Ben: 5:59

BELIEVE!

Christy said...

And Claire: 8h 7min

scotty doesn't know said...

i'm going with all palindrome predictions:

ryan: 1:00:01
prof. whitlock: 6:16:16
claire: 8:55:58

De said...

I'm sticking with the formulary for Claire
3:54:22 x 2 + 27 min = 8:15:44

Gooooooooooooo Claire!

Casper said...

Ryan 58:28
Ben 6:08:18
Claire 8:28:28

These are completely unscientific and uneducated guesses.

n. said...

i don't care if it's not price is right rules, "one dollar, bob."

good luck everyone!

RM said...

Arizona live update! We are here and it is amazing. Such great weather. A little nippy in the morning but by 10am that sun is STRONG. I love Tempe. I am going to swim in the lake tomorrow, so I'll see how it feels. My nose is mad stuffy but it shouldn't bother me too much.

Rebs said...

Scott jurek is running JFK. Hot.

RM said...

Alyssa wins the guess Ben's time contest....

Stay tuned for the Claire and RM versions

pat said...

58:17

gladfelter said...

This conversation is mab.